## (Basic Statistics for Citizen Data Scientist)

# Classification Table

The Classification Table compares the predicted number of successes to the number successes actually observed and similarly the predicted number of failures compared to the number actually observed.

We have four possible outcomes:

**True Positives** (**TP**) = the number of cases which were correctly classified to be positive, i.e. were predicted to be a success and were actually observed to be a success

**False Positives** (**FP**) = the number of cases which were incorrectly classified as positive, i.e. were predicted to be a success but were actually observed to be a failure

**True Negatives** (**TN**) = the number of cases which were correctly classified to be negative, i.e. were predicted to be a failure and were actually observed to be a failure

**False Negatives** (**FN**) = the number of cases which were incorrectly classified as negative, i.e. were predicted to be a negative but were actually observed to be a success

The **Classification Table** takes the form

where PP = predicted positive = TP + FP, PN = predicted negative = FN + TN, OP = observed positive = TP + FN, ON = observed negative = FP + TN and Tot = the total sample size = TP + FP + FN + TN.

**Example 1**: A new spray is being tested for killing mosquitos. In particular the researchers want to discover the correct dosage of the spray. They tested 806 mosquitos with dosages varying from 0 μg to 20 μg and tabulated the number of mosquitos who died and lived in 2 μg dosage intervals as shown in range A24:C34 of Figure 1.

Create the classification table for a dosage of 10 μg or more. Success is viewed as mosquito died and failure is mosquito lived. A dosage of less than 10 μg is viewed as a prediction of failure (mosquito lives) and a dosage of 10 μg or more is viewed as a prediction of success (mosquito dies).

**Figure 1 – Classification Table**

We will use a cutoff value which corresponds to the last row in the table that is a failure, which in this case is row 5 (8.00 – 9.99).

For the data in Figure 1 we have

TN = 413 (cell M27), which can be calculated by the formula =SUM(B25:B29)

FN = 58 (cell N27), which can be calculated by the formula =SUM(C25:C29)

FP = 114 (cell M28), which can be calculated by the formula =B35-M27

TP = 221 (cell N28), which can be calculated by the formula = C35-N27

Note that FP is the type I error and FN is the type II error as described in Hypothesis Testing.

We now can define the following:

**True Positive Rate** (**TPR**), aka **Sensitivity **= TP/OP = 221/279 = .792115 (cell N31)

**True Negative Rate **(**TNR**), aka **Specificity** = TN/ON = 413/527 = .783681 (cell M31)

**Accuracy **(**ACC**) = (TP + TN)/Tot = (221+413) / 806 = .7866 (cell O31)

**False Positive Rate** (**FPR**) = 1 – TNR = FP/ON = 114/527 = .216319

**Positive Predictive Value** (**PPV**) = TP/PP = 221/335 = .659701

**Negative Predictive Value** (**NPV**) = TN/PN = 413/471 = .876858

Accuracy is a measure of the fit of the model (i.e. a dosage of 10 μg or more in this example). For Example 1 this is .7866, which means that the model gives an accurate prediction 78.66% of the time, or simply stated 78.66% of the mosquitos show the right outcome: they die when the dosage is 10 μg or more and live when the dosage is less than 10 μg.

## Statistics for Beginners with Excel – Classification Table

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